Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread

Karpechko, Alexey Yu.; Wu, Zheng; Simpson, Isla R.; Kretschmer, Marlene; Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla; Butler, Amy H.; Domeisen, Daniela I.V.; Garny, Hella; Lawrence, Zachary; Manzini, Elisa; Sigmond, Michael

doi:10.1029/2024jd040823

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Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread

2024
By Karpechko, Alexey Yu. ; Wu, Zheng ; Simpson, Isla R. ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(13)

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Karpechko, Alexey Yu. ; Wu, Zheng ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Kretschmer, Marlene ; Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla ; ... More +

Karpechko, Alexey Yu. ; Wu, Zheng ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Kretschmer, Marlene ; Afargan‐Gerstman, Hilla ; Butler, Amy H. ; Domeisen, Daniela I.V. ; Garny, Hella ; Lawrence, Zachary ; Manzini, Elisa ; Sigmond, Michael Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

We analyze the sources for spread in the response of the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) to global warming in Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and Phase 6 (CMIP6) model projections. About half of the intermodel spread in SPV projections by CMIP6 models, but less than a third in CMIP5 models, can be attributed to the intermodel spread in stationary planetary wave driving. In CMIP6, SPV weakening is mostly driven by increased upward wave flux from the troposphere, while SPV strengthening is associated with increased equatorward wave propagation away from the polar stratosphere. We test hypothesized factors contributing to changes in the upward and equatorward planetary wave fluxes and show that an across‐model regression using projected global warming rates, strengthening of the subtropical jet and basic state lower stratospheric wind biases as predictors can explain nearly the same fraction in the CMIP6 SPV spread as the planetary wave driving (r = 0.67). The dependence of the SPV spread on the model biases in the basic state winds offers a possible emergent constraint; however, a large uncertainty prevents a substantial reduction of the projected SPV spread. The lack of this dependence in CMIP5 further calls for better understanding of underlying causes. Our results improve understanding of projected SPV uncertainty; however, further narrowing of the uncertainty remains challenging.
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129(13)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024jd040823
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha-512:10857adab253b54cbad40be8ebd1419c8afa9a2505c865063869cd63838d5fb274147160cfc2c74dff12bad0eebe8e6a427984ad81e67d00f2b06b00bc778048
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Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere‐Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread

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