Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

Ceppi, P.; Myers, T. A.; Nowack, P.; Wall, C. J.; Zelinka, M. D.

doi:10.1029/2024gl110525

i

Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback

2024
By Ceppi, P. ; Myers, T. A. ; Nowack, P. ; ...

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Ceppi, P. ; Myers, T. A. ; Nowack, P. ; Wall, C. J. ; Zelinka, M. D.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory)
Description:

How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(20)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl110525
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:6da28ba132e96599ef64afde0ee23c162703659defcd291054169780c3acbd2f6d64f9328c6cfdc4f3c445029f54985bb4fd27b6da6adf2548af81c12d17f8a1
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68705/noaa_68705_DS1.pdf
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[PDF - 13.77 MB ]

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