Short-term forecasting of fecal coliforms in shellfish growing waters

Details

• Journal Title:
  Marine Pollution Bulletin
• Personal Author:
  Chazal, Natalie ; Carr, Megan ; Leight, Andrew K. ; Saia, Sheila M. ; Nelson, Natalie G.
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science)
• Description:
  This study sought to develop models for predicting near-term (1–3 day) fecal contamination events in coastal shellfish growing waters. Using Random Forest regression, we (1) developed fecal coliform (FC) concentration models for shellfish growing areas using watershed characteristics and antecedent hydrologic and meteorologic observations as predictors, (2) tested the change in model performance associated when forecasted, as opposed to measured, rainfall variables were used as predictors, and (3) evaluated model predictor importance in relation to shellfish sanitation management criteria. Models were trained to 10 years of coastal FC measurements (n = 1285) for 5 major shellfish management areas along the Florida (USA) coast. Model performance varied between the 5 management areas with R2 ranging from 0.36 to 0.72. Antecedent precipitation variables were among the most important predictors in the day-of forecast models in all management areas. When forecasted rainfall was included in the models, wind components became increasingly important.
• Source:
  Marine Pollution Bulletin, 200, 116053
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116053
• ISSN:
  0025-326X
• Format:
  pdf
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article-Accepted Manuscript
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY-NC-ND
• Rights Statement:
  The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:9d365cc843c3b1191fd2b74dc603057e9d4aa5728168a483f61c80bdd4d2ab9cf063d6788afffabf19d0e6013f3abf6b89ab45c985ae6c70acdab0aef1ec1bb8
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/68395/noaa_68395_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 976.70 KB ]