A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations
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A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

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  • Journal Title:
    Journal of Hydrology
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.
  • Source:
    Journal of Hydrology, 556, 835-846
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0022-1694
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    Elsevier BV
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article-Accepted Manuscript
  • Rights Information:
    Accepted Manuscript
  • Rights Statement:
    The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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    Library
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