Exploring snow model parameter sensitivity using Sobol' variance decomposition
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Exploring snow model parameter sensitivity using Sobol' variance decomposition

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  • Journal Title:
    Environmental Modelling & Software
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)
  • Description:
    This study advances model diagnostics for snowmelt-based hydrological systems using Sobol’ sensitivity analysis, illuminating parameter sensitivities and contrasting model structural differences. We consider several distinct snow-dominated locations in the western United States, running both SNOW-17, a conceptual degree-day model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) snow model, a physically-based model. Model performance is rigorously evaluated through global sensitivity analysis and a temperature warming analysis is conducted to explore how model parameterizations affect portrayals of climate change. Both VIC and SNOW-17 produce comparable results with SNOW-17 performing slightly better for shallower snowpacks and VIC performing better for deeper snowpacks. However, the lack of sensitivity of SNOW-17 to climate warming suggests that it may not be as reliable as a more sensitive model like VIC. Inter-model differences presented here offer insights into physical features with greatest uncertainty and may inform future model development and planning activities.
  • Source:
    Environmental Modelling & Software, 89, 144-158
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    1364-8152
  • Format:
    pdf
  • Publisher:
    Elsevier BV
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article-Accepted Manuscript
  • Rights Information:
    Accepted Manuscript
  • Rights Statement:
    The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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    Library
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