A flexible tropical cyclone vortex initialization technique for GFDL SHiELD

Gao, Kun; Harris, Lucas; Tong, Mingjing; Zhou, Linjiong; Chen, Jan-Huey; Cheng, Kai-Yuan

doi:10.3389/feart.2024.1396390

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A flexible tropical cyclone vortex initialization technique for GFDL SHiELD

2024
By Gao, Kun ; Harris, Lucas ; Tong, Mingjing ; ...
Source: Frontiers in Earth Science, 12

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Journal Title:

Frontiers in Earth Science
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Gao, Kun ; Harris, Lucas ; Tong, Mingjing ; Zhou, Linjiong ; Chen, Jan-Huey ; ... More +

Gao, Kun ; Harris, Lucas ; Tong, Mingjing ; Zhou, Linjiong ; Chen, Jan-Huey ; Cheng, Kai-Yuan Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIMES (Cooperative Institute for Modeling the Earth System) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasting poses challenges due to complex dynamical processes and data inadequacies during model initialization. This paper describes efforts to improve TC intensity prediction in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) System for High-resolution prediction on Earth-to-Local Domains (SHiELD) model by implementing a Vortex Initialization (VI) technique. The GFDL SHiELD model, relying on the Global Forecast System (GFS) analysis for initialization, faces deficiencies in initial TC structure and intensity. The VI method involves adjusting the TC vortex inherited from the GFS analysis and merging it back into the environment at the observed location, enhancing the analyzed representation of storm structure. We made modifications to the VI package implemented in the operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, including handling initial condition data, reducing input domain size, and improving storm intensity enhancement. Experiments using the T-SHiELD configuration demonstrate that using VI significantly improves the representation of initial TC intensity and size, enhancing TC predictions, particularly in storm intensity and outer wind forecasts within the first 48 h.
Source:

Frontiers in Earth Science, 12
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2024.1396390
ISSN:

2296-6463
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pdf
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Frontiers Media SA
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Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA23OAR4320198
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha-512:222bec24777a0131cb10d70e1d4fd41121b525bd6375b720e0275101bb4de8b1cd594ae03929e6ca6b71182d0a6b58d7644d6bbfc2016210a7290dab6ce2e86d
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A flexible tropical cyclone vortex initialization technique for GFDL SHiELD

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