Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?

Trabing, Benjamin C.; Penny, Andrew B.; Martinez, Jonathan; Fritz, Cody

doi:10.1029/2024gl109663

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?

2024
By Trabing, Benjamin C. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Martinez, Jonathan ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 51(12)

[PDF-1.77 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Trabing, Benjamin C. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Martinez, Jonathan ; Fritz, Cody

Trabing, Benjamin C. ; Penny, Andrew B. ; Martinez, Jonathan ; Fritz, Cody Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center)

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRA (Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere) ; NHC (National Hurricane Center) Less -
Description:

The radius of maximum wind (RMW) defines the location of the maximum winds in a tropical cyclone and is critical to understanding intensity change as well as hazard impacts. A comparison between the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models and two statistical models based off the National Hurricane Center official forecast is conducted relative to a new baseline climatology to better understand whether models have skill in forecasting the RMW of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. On average, the HAFS models are less skillful than the climatology and persistence baseline and two statistically derived RMW estimates. The performance of the HAFS models is dependent on intensity with better skill for stronger tropical cyclones compared to weaker tropical cyclones. To further improve guidance of tropical cyclone hazards, more work needs to be done to improve forecasts of tropical cyclone structure.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(12)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109663
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4310383
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
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Library
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urn:sha-512:7fcdd910d59d5b514955dd160e3eaf96cfcb50fb132b8a9c0798fda50edbdefb127d9f7ad8f1f025fa24cf6964bcf8799c75e86c527fbf11c2fbc4a40add850d
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67914/noaa_67914_DS1.pdf
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Are Forecasts of the Tropical Cyclone Radius of Maximum Wind Skillful?

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