Contrasting Response of Mesoscale Convective Systems Occurrence Over Tropical Land and Ocean to Increased Sea Surface Temperature

Dong, Wenhao; Zhao, Ming; Harris, Lucas; Cheng, Kai‐Yuan; Zhou, Linjiong; Ramaswamy, V.

doi:10.1029/2024gl109251

i

Contrasting Response of Mesoscale Convective Systems Occurrence Over Tropical Land and Ocean to Increased Sea Surface Temperature

2024
By Dong, Wenhao ; Zhao, Ming ; Harris, Lucas
Source Geophysical Research Letters, 51(21)

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Dong, Wenhao ; Zhao, Ming ; Harris, Lucas ; Cheng, Kai‐Yuan ; Zhou, Linjiong ; Ramaswamy, V.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are pivotal in global energy/water cycles and typically produce extreme weather events. Despite their importance, our understanding of their future change remains limited, largely due to inadequate representation in current climate models. Here, using a global storm‐resolving model that accurately simulates MCSs, we conclude contrasting responses to increased SST in their occurrence, that is, notable decreases over land but increases over ocean. This land‐ocean contrast is attributed to the changes in convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition (CIN). Over land, notable rises in CIN alongside moderate increases in CAPE effectively suppress (favor) weak to moderate (intense) MCSs, resulting in an overall reduction in MCS occurrences. In contrast, substantial increases in CAPE with minimal changes in CIN over ocean contribute to a significant rise in MCS occurrences. The divergent response in MCS occurrence has profound impacts on both mean and extreme precipitation.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(21)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024gl109251
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

pdf
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA16NWS4620043 ; Grant no. NA18NWS4620043B ; Grant no. NA18OAR4320123 ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220146 ; Grant no. NA19OAR0220147
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67714/noaa_67714_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.35 MB]
Collection(s):

Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) ; National Weather Service (NWS)
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:f0bddb7a591ee7cc3cd4285d4768e67b8809212741246473e2a8fb0a3d6cdad8903b1857f0fbf3bc44244cd7f7b3833c680ba55a4e0c1bdcb0fefd95b1bfd07c

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