On the relationship between monthly mean surface temperature and tornado days in the United States

Hoogewind, Kimberly A.; Gensini, Vittorio A.; Brooks, Harold E.

doi:10.1038/s41612-025-00993-2

i

On the relationship between monthly mean surface temperature and tornado days in the United States

2025
By Hoogewind, Kimberly A. ; Gensini, Vittorio A. ; Brooks, Harold E.

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Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Hoogewind, Kimberly A. ; Gensini, Vittorio A. ; Brooks, Harold E.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; SPC (Storm Prediction Center) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NSSL (National Severe Storms Laboratory) ; CIWRO (Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations)
Description:

Correlation was examined between detrended monthly surface temperature and monthly [E]F-1+ tornadoes and tornado days for several contiguous US regions during the period 1954–2022. This relatively simple, yet robust, analysis indicated that regional temperature fluctuations are moderately-to-strongly correlated with tornado days during some months and in certain regions. In general, surface temperatures during boreal cool (warm) season had a positive (negative) correlation with tornado days. Implications for using a continuous, simple scalar variable such as surface temperature for tornado prediction are discussed, as well as the potential utility for understanding changes in tornado frequency due to climate variability and change.
Keywords:

Climatic Changes Tornadoes Climatic Changes Climate Change Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) Severe Convective Storm (SCS) Surface Temperature Tornado Observations
Source:

npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 119 (2025)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00993-2
Format:

PDF
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR4320072
Place as Subject:

United States
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:1feeb334283102715c192da27c7efda641a959b75eb1d8255e6cb733b07f95cd2f9337a624563081e666781f840ae819b91cd8ad261d72299dc4520dc0e806b1
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67535/noaa_67535_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 8.56 MB ]

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