Multi‐Season Lead Prediction of Atlantic Niño Facilitated by Pacific Ocean Precursors

Jiang, Feng; Zhang, Wenjun; Boucharel, Julien; Jin, Fei‐Fei; McPhaden, Michael J.; Stuecker, Malte F.

doi:10.1029/2024GL111494

i

Multi‐Season Lead Prediction of Atlantic Niño Facilitated by Pacific Ocean Precursors

2025
By Jiang, Feng ; Zhang, Wenjun ; Boucharel, Julien ; ...
Series: PMEL contribution no. 5543

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Jiang, Feng ; Zhang, Wenjun ; Boucharel, Julien ; Jin, Fei‐Fei ; McPhaden, Michael J. ; Stuecker, Malte F.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; PMEL (Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory)
Description:

The boreal summer Atlantic Niño, the dominant mode of interannual climate variability in the equatorial Atlantic, exerts profound effects on local ecosystems and broader climate patterns, yet its prediction remains a long‐standing challenge. The short lifecycle of the Atlantic Niño and the lack of precursor signals beyond about one season lead time have hindered the development of forecasts with useful accuracy and lead time. In this study, we propose a new approach to Atlantic Niño forecasting that extends beyond the Atlantic region by incorporating longer‐lasting precursors in the Pacific associated with El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events. Using this prediction framework, we can hindcast the Atlantic Niño with skill up to three seasons in advance. Our results highlight the critical role of inter‐basin interactions in shaping regional and global climate patterns, and provide new hope for improving seasonal climate prediction capabilities in the tropical Atlantic.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 52(2)
Series:

PMEL contribution no. 5543
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111494
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:0dadc115b1daa8da09e7cbbe39d02935cf813b709c4402d6a5839b4c46e837c60ac657aae489d859697804f8b60eb03850dea70f35e440fae03ad4d3c7cbbd88
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/67452/noaa_67452_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.17 MB ]

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