The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners.
As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i
Why Does the Ensemble Mean of CMIP6 Models Simulate Arctic Temperature More Accurately Than Global Temperature?
-
2024
-
-
Source: Atmosphere, 15(5), 567
-
Series: PMEL contribution; no. 5614
[PDF-1.16 MB]
Details:
-
Journal Title:Atmosphere
-
Personal Author:
-
NOAA Program & Office:
-
Description:An accurate simulation and projection of future warming are needed for a proper policy response to expected climate change. We examine the simulations of the mean global and Arctic surface air temperatures by the CMIP6 (Climate Models Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models. Most models overestimate the observed mean global warming. Only seven out of 19 models considered simulate global warming that is within ±15% of the observed warming between the average of the 2014–2023 and 1961–1990 reference period. Ten models overestimate global warming by more than 15% and only one of the models underestimates it by more than 15%. Arctic warming is simulated by the CMIP6 climate models much better than the mean global warming. The reason is an equal spread of over and underestimates of Arctic warming by the models, while most of the models overestimate the mean global warming. Eight models are within ±15% of the observed Arctic warming. Only three models are accurate within ±15% for both mean global and Arctic temperature simulations.
-
Source:Atmosphere, 15(5), 567
-
Series:
-
DOI:
-
ISSN:2073-4433
-
Format:
-
Publisher:
-
Document Type:
-
Funding:
-
License:
-
Rights Information:CC BY
-
Compliance:Submitted
-
Main Document Checksum:
-
Download URL:
-
File Type:
