Integration of emerging data-driven models into the NOAA research to operation pipeline for numerical weather prediction

Frolov, Sergey; Garrett, Kevin; Jankov, Isidora; Kleist, Daryl; Stewart, Jebb Q.; Ten Hoeve, John

doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0062.1

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i

Integration of emerging data-driven models into the NOAA research to operation pipeline for numerical weather prediction

2024
By Frolov, Sergey ; Garrett, Kevin ; Jankov, Isidora ; ...
Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2024)

[PDF-736.95 KB]

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Journal Title:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
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Frolov, Sergey ; Garrett, Kevin ; Jankov, Isidora ; Kleist, Daryl ; Stewart, Jebb Q. ; ... More +

Frolov, Sergey ; Garrett, Kevin ; Jankov, Isidora ; Kleist, Daryl ; Stewart, Jebb Q. ; Ten Hoeve, John Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; ... More +

NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; PSL (Physical Sciences Laboratory) ; WPO (Weather Program Office) Less -
Description:

Over the last 18 months, a tidal wave of data-driven models revolutionized the way we think about the future of the weather prediction enterprise (Bauer et.al 2023). Groundbreaking data- driven models (Pathak et.al 2022, Bi et.al 2023, Lam et.al 2023) showed that ML emulators trained on the ERA5 reanalysis are capable of achieving the skill of the flagship deterministic weather forecast from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at ~1/1,000 cost of the traditional model. Early results also show enhanced skill of the new data- driven models in predicting extreme life-threatening events like hurricanes, winter storms, and heat waves.
Source:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2024)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0062.1
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0003-0007;1520-0477;
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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CC BY
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urn:sha-512:a60948a9a176df37acfd839bd83835076e6adc3d5ae65896066e6d7a360d113c02257582ad839bdc5533c5f7da12081f58fc332db71b38b365a7b6b573f668bc
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Integration of emerging data-driven models into the NOAA research to operation pipeline for numerical weather prediction

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