| Reliability trends of the global forecast system model output statistical guidance in the northeastern US : a statistical analysis with operational forecasting applications - :6655 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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Reliability trends of the global forecast system model output statistical guidance in the northeastern US : a statistical analysis with operational forecasting applications
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    "Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Output Statistical (MOS) Guidance Probability of Precipitation (PoP) bias is examined for the northeastern United States, New England and Burlington, VT. Clear and distinct trends are identified in the data sets, with a mean positive bias noted across lower PoP categories (<=40%), and a mean negative bias across higher PoP (>=60%) categories. This is especially evident in the New England and Burlington, VT data sets. Possible causes of the observed lower PoP category bias are discussed, namely the coarseness in model resolution and the inherent design of the regional regression equations that drive the GFS MOS PoP scheme. Applications of the observed bias to operational forecasting techniques are then presented. It is argued that by adjusting forecast PoP values five to ten percent below GFS guidance across the lower PoP categories during the first three forecast periods, improvement over guidance may be realized in the long run. Due to good observed GFS MOS reliability (low bias) across the higher PoP categories, discreet adjustment of these values in either direction is not recommended"--Abstract.

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