| Application of the KINEROS2 site specific model to south-central NY and northeast PA : forecasting gaged and ungaged fast responding watersheds - :6627 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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Application of the KINEROS2 site specific model to south-central NY and northeast PA : forecasting gaged and ungaged fast responding watersheds
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    "Fast responding headwater river basins and small streams pose a significant threat to life and property throughout the eastern United States. This paper presents the results from the application of the real-time distributed model KINematic runoff and EROSion model (KINEROS2) to the complex terrain of the Binghamton County Warning Area. In operations, KINEROS2 uses the highest resolution radar data available, in both space and time, with the intent to improve flash flood warning lead time. KINEROS2 was originally developed for use in urban and semi-arid climates. This study demonstrates a proof of concept for applying KINEROS2 to a more humid regime. Key model parameters needed for manual calibration of peak flow generated by KINEROS2 in humid climates were identified. Saturated hydrologic conductivity of hill slopes had the greatest influence on the peak flow rate and channel length on the timing of the peak flow rate. It was found that optimal parameter values varied significantly between storms with respect to both basin average rainfall and maximum basin average rainfall intensity. This uncertainty in parameter estimation is addressed by running KINEROS2 with parameter sets that reflect the range obtained by calibration. An additional source of uncertainty is the selection of an appropriate Z-R relationship. KINEROS2 can be run for ungaged watersheds assuming some information can be collected on the timing and magnitude of several flow events. Running a distributed model on the small basin scale provides information on the magnitude and timing of a flash flood event which is not currently available using current NOAA/NWS flash flood forecasting methodologies"--Abstract.

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