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Flash flood composite analysis in Vermont and northern New York
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  • Description:
    "A study of 51 flash flood cases in the National Weather Service (NWS) Burlington , Vermont's County Warning Area was conducted. Composite analysis maps were generated, and a subset of 17 available soundings were analyzed. Composite maps showed flash flood-producing storms developed in areas of moderately favorable upper level jet dynamics, weak mid-tropospheric ridging with an approaching short wave trough to the west, a weak surface trough in the vicinity and a low level high moisture axis. The sounding analysis revealed a tall narrow CAPE profile, deep warm coalescence layer, and a light veering wind profile through the boundary layer. Precipitable water, while high, was not extremely anomalous; in most cases only 100% to 150% of normal. The soundings were also marked by a very low Lifted Condensation Level, in many cases below 1,000 feet above ground level. The spatial distribution of reported events suggested evidence of a population bias in northern New York, while this signal was less pronounced in Vermont. Orographical influences were also apparent, especially along the eastern slopes of the Adirondack Mountains. By applying local forecast expertise in conjunction with the parameters identified in this study, it is hoped that skill in detecting the potential for flash flooding in the NWS Burlington, VT county warning area will increase"--Abstract.
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