| Distinguishing effects of El Niño southern oscillation from natural short-term climate variability - :6621 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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Distinguishing effects of El Niño southern oscillation from natural short-term climate variability
  • Published Date:
    2009
Filetype[PDF-1.59 MB]


Details:
  • Corporate Authors:
    United States, National Weather Service
  • Description:
    "This study will show the inadequacy of regional ENSO studies that do not give proper consideration to the effects of natural short-term climate variability. It will suggest that natural short-term climate variability likely plays a role in determining the type of weather a particular ENSO event will produce -- something that would be missed if simple correlations were the only focus of the study. It will be shown that the climatologically distinct period of the late 1950's and 1960's tended to produce particular types of weather at Nashville during El Niño and La Niña. Some of the effects were positively correlated with the short-term climate variability, whereas other effects were anomalous. Certain unique climate signals were also found in the data that might help forecasters make general weather predictions for upcoming months, and even entire seasons. Findings suggest that El Niño drying trends, as well as unusually warm La Niña weather, can likely be predicted for Nashville by closely observing local trends in the weather during the summer and fall months leading into an ENSO event"--Abstract.

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