Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

Eyring, Veronika; Cox, Peter M.; Flato, Gregory M.; Gleckler, Peter J.; Abramowitz, Gab; Caldwell, Peter; Collins, William D.; Gier, Bettina K.; Hall, Alex D.; Hoffman, Forrest M.; Hurtt, George C.; Jahn, Alexandra; Jones, Chris D.; Klein, Stephen A.; Krasting, John P.; Kwiatkowski, Lester; Lorenz, Ruth; Maloney, Eric; Meehl, Gerald A.; Pendergrass, Angeline G.; Pincus, Robert; Ruane, Alex C.; Russell, Joellen L.; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Simpson, Isla R.; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Williamson, Mark S.

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

2019
By Eyring, Veronika ; Cox, Peter M. ; Flato, Gregory M. ; ...
Source: Nature Climate Change, 9(2), 102-110

[PDF-1.10 MB]

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Journal Title:

Nature Climate Change
Personal Author:

Eyring, Veronika ; Cox, Peter M. ; Flato, Gregory M. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; Abramowitz, Gab ; ... More +

Eyring, Veronika ; Cox, Peter M. ; Flato, Gregory M. ; Gleckler, Peter J. ; Abramowitz, Gab ; Caldwell, Peter ; Collins, William D. ; Gier, Bettina K. ; Hall, Alex D. ; Hoffman, Forrest M. ; Hurtt, George C. ; Jahn, Alexandra ; Jones, Chris D. ; Klein, Stephen A. ; Krasting, John P. ; Kwiatkowski, Lester ; Lorenz, Ruth ; Maloney, Eric ; Meehl, Gerald A. ; Pendergrass, Angeline G. ; Pincus, Robert ; Ruane, Alex C. ; Russell, Joellen L. ; Sanderson, Benjamin M. ; Santer, Benjamin D. ; Sherwood, Steven C. ; Simpson, Isla R. ; Stouffer, Ronald J. ; Williamson, Mark S. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) Less -
Description:

Earth system models are complex and represent a large number of processes, resulting in a persistent spread across climate projections for a given future scenario. Owing to different model performances against observations and the lack of independence among models, there is now evidence that giving equal weight to each available model projection is suboptimal. This Perspective discusses newly developed tools that facilitate a more rapid and comprehensive evaluation of model simulations with observations, process-based emergent constraints that are a promising way to focus evaluation on the observations most relevant to climate projections, and advanced methods for model weighting. These approaches are needed to distil the most credible information on regional climate changes, impacts, and risks for stakeholders and policy-makers.
Source:

Nature Climate Change, 9(2), 102-110
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y
ISSN:

1758-678X;1758-6798;
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PDF
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Springer Science and Business Media LLC
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Journal Article
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Accepted Manuscript
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The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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urn:sha-512:1554517b85f19b39ed2d29dc19f2c1f9ba616b8d0bfc378e3d9299f1e5a44a06bd3c51fbc86e6dab0dbd2327c5ad8060d7ce3fe11ce6cf6bc211a26236a736b0
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Taking climate model evaluation to the next level

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