Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming
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Change in the magnitude and mechanisms of global temperature variability with warming

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  • Journal Title:
    Nature Climate Change
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
  • Description:
    Natural unforced variability in global mean surface air temperature (GMST) can mask or exaggerate human-caused global warming, and thus a complete understanding of this variability is highly desirable. Significant progress has been made in elucidating the magnitude and physical origins of present-day unforced GMST variability, but it has remained unclear how such variability may change as the climate warms. Here we present modelling evidence that indicates that the magnitude of low-frequency GMST variability is likely to decline in a warmer climate and that its generating mechanisms may be fundamentally altered. In particular, a warmer climate results in lower albedo at high latitudes, which yields a weaker albedo feedback on unforced GMST variability. These results imply that unforced GMST variability is dependent on the background climatological conditions, and thus climate model control simulations run under perpetual pre-industrial conditions may have only limited relevance for understanding the unforced GMST variability of the future.
  • Source:
    Nature Climate Change, 7(10), 743-748
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    1758-678X;1758-6798;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    Springer Science and Business Media LLC
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Rights Information:
    Accepted Manuscript
  • Rights Statement:
    The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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    Submitted
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