Halving warming with idealized solar geoengineering moderates key climate hazards

Details

• Journal Title:
  Nature Climate Change
• Personal Author:
  Irvine, Peter ; Emanuel, Kerry ; He, Jie ; Horowitz, Larry W. ; Vecchi, Gabriel ; Keith, David
• NOAA Program & Office:
  OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
• Description:
  Solar geoengineering (SG) has the potential to restore average surface temperatures by increasing planetary albedo, but this could reduce precipitation. Thus, although SG might reduce globally aggregated risks, it may increase climate risks for some regions. Here, using the high-resolution forecast-oriented low ocean resolution (HiFLOR) model—which resolves tropical cyclones and has an improved representation of present-day precipitation extremes—alongside 12 models from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), we analyse the fraction of locations that see their local climate change exacerbated or moderated by SG. Rather than restoring temperatures, we assume that SG is applied to halve the warming produced by doubling CO2 (half-SG). In HiFLOR, half-SG offsets most of the CO2-induced increase of simulated tropical cyclone intensity. Moreover, neither temperature, water availability, extreme temperature nor extreme precipitation are exacerbated under half-SG when averaged over any Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Extremes (SREX) region. Indeed, for both extreme precipitation and water availability, less than 0.4% of the ice-free land surface sees exacerbation. Thus, while concerns about the inequality of solar geoengineering impacts are appropriate, the quantitative extent of inequality may be overstated.
• Source:
  Nature Climate Change, 9(4), 295-299
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0398-8
• ISSN:
  1758-678X ; 1758-6798
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Springer Science and Business Media LLC
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Accepted Manuscript
• Rights Statement:
  The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
• Compliance:
  Submitted
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:dd3cfc8f5af7e95d5b3bd43db3f7a256e8f7866594f6cd3de681068cf18e605fc0029f141f8211cd1d16317379b21b837ce3a8b923e3d61a5ffa2e3272c77c0d
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/66078/noaa_66078_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 1.12 MB ]