Comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian transport models for harmful algal bloom forecasts in Lake Erie

Zhou, Xing; Rowe, Mark; Liu, Qianqian; Xue, Pengfei

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105641

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Comparison of Eulerian and Lagrangian transport models for harmful algal bloom forecasts in Lake Erie

2023
By Zhou, Xing ; Rowe, Mark ; Liu, Qianqian ; ...
Source: Environmental Modelling & Software, 162, 105641

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Details:

Journal Title:

Environmental Modelling & Software
Personal Author:

Zhou, Xing ; Rowe, Mark ; Liu, Qianqian ; Xue, Pengfei

Zhou, Xing ; Rowe, Mark ; Liu, Qianqian ; Xue, Pengfei Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory)

NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCCOS (National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; GLERL (Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Lake Erie has experienced a re-emergence of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CHABs) since the early 2000s, posing significant socioeconomic and ecological consequences that impact drinking water, human health, fisheries, tourism, and water quality. As predicting CHAB intensity and spatial distribution is critical to Lake Erie ecosystem management, this study focuses on a comprehensive evaluation of Lagrangian and Eulerian transport models for Lake Erie CHAB forecasts, including 1) a Lagrangian particle model (LPM), 2) an Eulerian tracer model (ETM), and 3) a property-carrying particle model (PCPM) that utilizes the hybrid Eulerian-Lagrangian approach. We evaluated the models' performance against the latest high-resolution satellite product from the European Space Agency's Sentinel-3 OLCI sensor over 24- to 240-h hindcasts for each CHAB occurrence in three consecutive CHAB seasons (2017–2019). We examined the relative contributions of horizontal transport, vertical turbulent mixing, and algal buoyancy on the CHAB inter- and intra-day variability. In the short-term forecast, we emphasize the highly dynamic reaction of currents to weather-scale wind events that are crucial to CHAB transport. While statistical skill assessments show that these three transport models attain comparable levels of hindcast accuracy, we explore the advantages and disadvantages of each model in the context of general biophysical modeling. In particular, the fact that the ETM and PCPM perform as well as or better than the LPM sets up a promising path to developing more biological realism in future operational forecast models using Eulerian or hybrid approaches.
Source:

Environmental Modelling & Software, 162, 105641
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105641
ISSN:

1364-8152
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA17NOS4780186 ; Grant no. 1305M320PNRMA0357

Grant no. NA17NOS4780186 ; Grant no. 1305M320PNRMA0357 Less -
Rights Information:

Accepted Manuscript
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The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha-512:a19afa3fee520e40d019390ea3740856cf702f843b7563186c9dade82b8cc81666882fa1682e0579a3bc6951eaaf7c29c4332fbba21493fe884092e85bb613dc
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/65913/noaa_65913_DS1.pdf
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[PDF-2.67 MB]