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Best Practices for Postprocessing Ensemble Climate Forecasts. Part I: Selecting Appropriate Recalibration Methods
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2016
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Source: Journal of Climate, 29(20), 7247-7264
[PDF-2.50 MB]
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Journal Title:Journal of Climate
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Description:This study describes a systematic approach to selecting optimal statistical recalibration methods and hindcast designs for producing reliable probability forecasts on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. A new recalibration method is introduced that includes adjustments for both unconditional and conditional biases in the mean and variance of the forecast distribution and linear time-dependent bias in the mean. The complexity of the recalibration can be systematically varied by restricting the parameters. Simple recalibration methods may outperform more complex ones given limited training data. A new cross-validation methodology is proposed that allows the comparison of multiple recalibration methods and varying training periods using limited data.
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Source:Journal of Climate, 29(20), 7247-7264
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DOI:
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ISSN:0894-8755;1520-0442;
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Rights Information:Other
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