Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

O'Kane, Terence J.; Scaife, Adam A.; Kushnir, Yochanan; Brookshaw, Anca; Buontempo, Carlo; Carlin, David; Connell, Richenda K.; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco; Dunstone, Nick; Förster, Kristian; Graça, Antonio; Hobday, Alistair J.; Kitsios, Vassili; van der Laan, Larissa; Lockwood, Julia; Merryfield, William J.; Paxian, Andreas; Payne, Mark R.; Reader, M. Catherine; Saville, Geoffrey R.; Smith, Doug; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan; Caltabiano, Nico; Carman, Jessie; Hawkins, Ed; Keenlyside, Noel; Kumar, Arun; Matei, Daniela; Pohlmann, Holger; Power, Scott; Raphael, Marilyn; Sparrow, Michael; Wu, Bo

doi:10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

2023
By O'Kane, Terence J. ; Scaife, Adam A. ; Kushnir, Yochanan ; ...
Source: Frontiers in Climate, 5

[PDF-2.34 MB]

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Journal Title:

Frontiers in Climate
Personal Author:

O'Kane, Terence J. ; Scaife, Adam A. ; Kushnir, Yochanan ; Brookshaw, Anca ; Buontempo, Carlo ; ... More +

O'Kane, Terence J. ; Scaife, Adam A. ; Kushnir, Yochanan ; Brookshaw, Anca ; Buontempo, Carlo ; Carlin, David ; Connell, Richenda K. ; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco ; Dunstone, Nick ; Förster, Kristian ; Graça, Antonio ; Hobday, Alistair J. ; Kitsios, Vassili ; van der Laan, Larissa ; Lockwood, Julia ; Merryfield, William J. ; Paxian, Andreas ; Payne, Mark R. ; Reader, M. Catherine ; Saville, Geoffrey R. ; Smith, Doug ; Solaraju-Murali, Balakrishnan ; Caltabiano, Nico ; Carman, Jessie ; Hawkins, Ed ; Keenlyside, Noel ; Kumar, Arun ; Matei, Daniela ; Pohlmann, Holger ; Power, Scott ; Raphael, Marilyn ; Sparrow, Michael ; Wu, Bo Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service)

NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; NWS (National Weather Service) Less -
Description:

Following efforts from leading centres for climate forecasting, sustained routine operational near-term climate predictions (NTCP) are now produced that bridge the gap between seasonal forecasts and climate change projections offering the prospect of seamless climate services. Though NTCP is a new area of climate science and active research is taking place to increase understanding of the processes and mechanisms required to produce skillful predictions, this significant technical achievement combines advances in initialisation with ensemble prediction of future climate up to a decade ahead. With a growing NTCP database, the predictability of the evolving externally-forced and internally-generated components of the climate system can now be quantified. Decision-makers in key sectors of the economy can now begin to assess the utility of these products for informing climate risk and for planning adaptation and resilience strategies up to a decade into the future. Here, case studies are presented from finance and economics, water management, agriculture and fisheries management demonstrating the emerging utility and potential of operational NTCP to inform strategic planning across a broad range of applications in key sectors of the global economy.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Science Environmental Science (miscellaneous) Global And Planetary Change Management, Monitoring, Policy And Law Pollution
Source:

Frontiers in Climate, 5
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
ISSN:

2624-9553
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PDF
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Frontiers Media SA
Document Type:

Journal Article
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha-512:fdddddce0771de70e7018b7dcbe069bff41ee273d94dbd3e2d2e37b4791eac40c7725a5f3fa84ef88acab60a889f23132da91a4cfd6286cf1ecaa07b9cb96e97
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Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions

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