Quantifying local predictability of the Lorenz system using the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent

Details

• Journal Title:
  Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters
• Personal Author:
  Huai, Xiao-Wei ; Li, Jian-Ping ; Ding, Rui-Qiang ; Feng, Jie ; Liu, De-Qiang
• NOAA Program & Office:
  ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
• Description:
  The nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) can be used as a quantification of the local predictability limit of chaotic systems. In this study, the phase-spatial structure of the local predictability limit over the Lorenz-63 system is investigated. It is found that the inner and outer rims of each regime of the attractor have a high probability of a longer than average local predictability limit, while the center part is the opposite. However, the distribution of the local predictability limit is nonuniformly organized, with adjacent points sometimes showing quite distinct error growth. The source of local predictability is linked to the local dynamics, which is related to the region in the phase space and the duration on the current regime.
• Keywords:
  • Atmospheric Science
  • Oceanography
• Source:
  Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 10(5), 372-378
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2017.1346457
• ISSN:
  1674-2834 ; 2376-6123
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Library
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/64044/noaa_64044_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 3.05 MB]
• Collection(s):
  Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR)
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:726081737096b7d054688ef2c0e084af3075d24db2b4698a67e8e9d972904fd43bb00c924f33a297d26485b7a30604fc6ba6134706fbf39ffb540b7f012802b3