Atmospheric modes fiddling the simulated ENSO impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific

Zhao, Jiuwei; Zhan, Ruifen; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Wang, Yuqing; Xie, Shang-Ping; Zhang, Leying; Guo, Yipeng

doi:10.1038/s41612-023-00537-6

i

Atmospheric modes fiddling the simulated ENSO impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the Northwest Pacific

2023
By Zhao, Jiuwei ; Zhan, Ruifen ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; ...

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Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Zhao, Jiuwei ; Zhan, Ruifen ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Wang, Yuqing ; Xie, Shang-Ping ; Zhang, Leying ; Guo, Yipeng
NOAA Program & Office:

GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is crucial to the interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP). However, most state-of-the-art climate models exhibit a consistent pattern of uncertainty in the simulated TC genesis frequency (TCGF) over the WNP in ENSO phases. Here, we analyze large ensemble simulations of TC-resolved climate models to identify the source of this uncertainty. Results show that large uncertainty appears in the South China Sea and east of the Philippines, primarily arising from two distinct atmospheric modes: the Matsuno-Gill-mode (MG-mode) and the Pacific-Japan-like pattern (PJ-mode). These two modes are closely associated with anomalous diabatic heating linked to tropical precipitation bias in model simulations. By conditionally constraining either of the modes, we can significantly reduce model uncertainty in simulating the dipole structure of the TCGF anomalies, confirming that it is the atmospheric circulation bias in response to tropical precipitation bias that causes uncertainty in the simulated WNP TCGF.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global And Planetary Change Global And Planetary Change Global And Planetary Change
Source:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00537-6
ISSN:

2397-3722
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:5aa64e6f67228db5b171a3c562443924eb6eaef3869fa816d72ba696b0f7130952af0b4ba897df656f0551213b9a1e5ad455112244f679399213609ac9850b90
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/64030/noaa_64030_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 4.07 MB ]

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