Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two‐way Nesting

Gao, Kun; Chen, Jan‐Huey; Harris, Lucas; Sun, Yongqiang; Lin, Shian‐Jiann

doi:10.1029/2019gl083526

i

Skillful Prediction of Monthly Major Hurricane Activity in the North Atlantic with Two‐way Nesting

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2019
By Gao, Kun ; Chen, Jan‐Huey ; Harris, Lucas ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Gao, Kun ; Chen, Jan‐Huey ; Harris, Lucas ; Sun, Yongqiang ; Lin, Shian‐Jiann
NOAA Program & Office:

GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

We investigate the monthly prediction of North Atlantic hurricane and especially major hurricane activity based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory High‐Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). We compare the performance of two grid configurations: a globally uniform 25‐km grid and the other with an 8‐km interactive nest over the tropical North Atlantic. Both grid configurations show skills in predicting anomalous monthly hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. Particularly, the 8‐km nested model shows improved skills in predicting major hurricane frequency and accumulated cyclone energy. The skill in anomalous monthly hurricane occurrence prediction arises from the accurate prediction of zonal wind shear anomalies in the Main Development Region, which in turn arises from the sea surface temperature anomalies persisted from the initialization time. The enhanced resolution on the nested grid permits a better representation of hurricanes and especially intense hurricanes, thereby showing the ability and the potential for prediction of major hurricanes on subseasonal timescales.
Keywords:

General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Earth And Planetary Sciences
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 46(15), 9222-9230
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083526
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA14OAR4320106
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:183c4d8f054c6b797ad047434ef56995c25c14b2312a90cf346033c6548accecec3d9c992d7e498ca83219c1e483f3d6d5fb731940cbcd80e0f57395a3268738
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63938/noaa_63938_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.77 MB ]

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