Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

Takaya, Yuhei; Caron, Louis-Philippe; Blake, Eric; Bonnardot, François; Bruneau, Nicolas; Camp, Joanne; Chan, Johnny; Gregory, Paul; Jones, Jhordanne J.; Kang, Namyoung; Klotzbach, Philip J.; Kuleshov, Yuriy; Leroux, Marie-Dominique; Lockwood, Julia F.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Nishimura, Akio; Pattanaik, Dushmanta R.; Philp, Tom J.; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan; Toumi, Ralf; Vitart, Frédéric; Won, Seonghee; Zhan, Ruifen

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

2023
By Takaya, Yuhei ; Caron, Louis-Philippe ; Blake, Eric ; ...
Source: Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(3), 182-199

[PDF-2.84 MB]

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Journal Title:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Personal Author:

Takaya, Yuhei ; Caron, Louis-Philippe ; Blake, Eric ; Bonnardot, François ; Bruneau, Nicolas ; ... More +

Takaya, Yuhei ; Caron, Louis-Philippe ; Blake, Eric ; Bonnardot, François ; Bruneau, Nicolas ; Camp, Joanne ; Chan, Johnny ; Gregory, Paul ; Jones, Jhordanne J. ; Kang, Namyoung ; Klotzbach, Philip J. ; Kuleshov, Yuriy ; Leroux, Marie-Dominique ; Lockwood, Julia F. ; Murakami, Hiroyuki ; Nishimura, Akio ; Pattanaik, Dushmanta R. ; Philp, Tom J. ; Ruprich-Robert, Yohan ; Toumi, Ralf ; Vitart, Frédéric ; Won, Seonghee ; Zhan, Ruifen Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)

GFDL (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) Less -
Description:

Seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting has evolved substantially since its commencement in the early 1980s. However, present operational seasonal TC forecasting services still do not meet the requirements of society and stakeholders: current operational products are mainly basin-scale information, while more detailed sub-basin scale information such as potential risks of TC landfall is anticipated for decision making. To fill this gap and make the TC science and services move forward, this paper reviews recent research and development in seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. In particular, this paper features new research topics on seasonal TC predictability in neutral conditions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), emerging forecasting techniques of seasonal TC activity including Machine Learning/Artificial Intelligence, and multi-annual TC predictions. We also review the skill of forecast systems at predicting landfalling statistics for certain regions of the North Atlantic, Western North Pacific and South Indian oceans and discuss the gap that remains between current products and potential user's expectations. New knowledge and advanced forecasting techniques are expected to further enhance the capability of seasonal TC forecasting and lead to more actionable and fit-for-purpose products.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Science Computers In Earth Sciences Global And Planetary Change Modeling And Simulation Safety Research
Source:

Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 12(3), 182-199
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.003
ISSN:

2225-6032
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha-512:6fe3844963d5c417706745a0591b9f7ebdd763e9754cb145777d278a0115ce1985cb52e24074893614b795e2ce61e2bab1c077de3ace1e45e9ef0042fdd9b7fd
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63905/noaa_63905_DS1.pdf
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Recent advances in seasonal and multi-annual tropical cyclone forecasting

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