Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids

Luo, Jiesi; Chen, Wei; Ray, Jim; Li, Jiancheng

doi:10.1007/s10712-022-09733-0

i

Short-Term Polar Motion Forecast Based on the Holt-Winters Algorithm and Angular Momenta of Global Surficial Geophysical Fluids

2022
By Luo, Jiesi ; Chen, Wei ; Ray, Jim ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Surveys in Geophysics
Personal Author:

Luo, Jiesi ; Chen, Wei ; Ray, Jim ; Li, Jiancheng
NOAA Program & Office:

NOAA General Documents
Description:

By taking into account the variable free polar motion (PM) known as the Chandler wobble (CW) and irregular forced PM excited by quasi-periodic changes in atmosphere, oceans and land water (described by the data of effective angular momenta EAM), we propose a short-term PM forecast method based on the Holt-Winters (HW) additive algorithm (termed as the HW-VCW method, with VCW denoting variable CW). In this method, the variable CW period is determined by minimizing the differences between PM observations and EAM-derived PM for every 8-year sliding timespan. Compared to the X- and Y-pole forecast errors (ΔPMX and ΔPMY) of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) Bulletin A, our results derived from operational EAM can reduce ΔPMX by up to 38.4% and ΔPMY by up to 34.3% for forecasts ranging from 1 to 30 days. Further, we prove that using EAM forecast instead of operational EAM in the HW-VCW method can achieve similar accuracies.
Keywords:

Geochemistry And Petrology Geophysics Geochemistry And Petrology Geochemistry And Petrology
Source:

Surveys in Geophysics, 43(6), 1929-1945
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-022-09733-0
ISSN:

0169-3298 ; 1573-0956
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:4346835fbf1b15bcdf40da5d66e13f630eb5d4c84b57b28da2548beb4c718fc065745e545131bf2d3faa182d007fdbf5f6dcb6f0da555ee60cae89882aea83ab
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63819/noaa_63819_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 2.47 MB ]

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