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A more productive, but different, ocean after mitigation
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2015
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Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 42(22), 9836-9845
[PDF-1.18 MB]
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Journal Title:Geophysical Research Letters
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Description:Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 forcings are applied out to 2100 and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon‐climate Earth System Model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non‐diatom phytoplankton.
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Source:Geophysical Research Letters, 42(22), 9836-9845
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ISSN:0094-8276;1944-8007;
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Rights Information:Other
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