Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation

Pagano, Thomas C.; Casati, Barbara; Landman, Stephanie; Loveday, Nicholas; Taggart, Robert; Ebert, Elizabeth E.; Khanarmuei, Mohammadreza; Jensen, Tara L.; Mittermaier, Marion; Roberts, Helen; Willington, Steve; Roberts, Nigel; Sowko, Mike; Strassberg, Gordon; Kluepfel, Charles; Bullock, Timothy A.; Turner, David D.; Pappenberger, Florian; Osborne, Neal; Noble, Chris

doi:10.1175/bams-d-22-0257.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

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Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation

2024
By Pagano, Thomas C. ; Casati, Barbara ; Landman, Stephanie ; ...
Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2024)

[PDF-1.55 MB]

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Journal Title:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Personal Author:

Pagano, Thomas C. ; Casati, Barbara ; Landman, Stephanie ; Loveday, Nicholas ; Taggart, Robert ; ... More +

Pagano, Thomas C. ; Casati, Barbara ; Landman, Stephanie ; Loveday, Nicholas ; Taggart, Robert ; Ebert, Elizabeth E. ; Khanarmuei, Mohammadreza ; Jensen, Tara L. ; Mittermaier, Marion ; Roberts, Helen ; Willington, Steve ; Roberts, Nigel ; Sowko, Mike ; Strassberg, Gordon ; Kluepfel, Charles ; Bullock, Timothy A. ; Turner, David D. ; Pappenberger, Florian ; Osborne, Neal ; Noble, Chris Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)

ESRL (Earth System Research Laboratory) ; GSL (Global Systems Laboratory) ; NWS (National Weather Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) Less -
Description:

Operational agencies face significant challenges related to the verification and evaluation of weather forecasts. These challenges were investigated in a series of online workshops and polls engaging operational personnel from six countries. Five key themes emerged: inadequate verification approaches for both existing and emerging products; incomplete and uncertain observations; difficulties in accurately capturing users' real-world experiences using simplified metrics; poor communication and understanding of forecasts and complex verification information; and institutional factors such as limited resources, evolving meteorologist roles, and concerns over reputational damage. We identify nearly fifty operationally relevant scientific questions and suggest calls to action. Addressing these needs includes designing forecast systems with verification as a central consideration, enhancing the availability of observations, and developing and adopting community software systems. Additionally, we propose the establishment of an international community comprising environmental and social science researchers, statisticians, verification practitioners, and users to provide sustained support for this collective endeavor.
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science
Source:

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2024)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-22-0257.1
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0003-0007;1520-0477;
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PDF
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American Meteorological Society
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Journal Article
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urn:sha-512:b3d9821388d292b4fbcc2b80e57d5e6ddc38edea152633dd1e51b2fa4b97356ab5c92705f9c02dfd06886f0f183b4e7fbc9ee5d9b14281422440fcaceb3ae72b
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Challenges of Operational Weather Forecast Verification and Evaluation

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