Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

Munsell, Erin B.; Zhang, Fuqing; Sippel, Jason A.; Braun, Scott A.; Weng, Yonghui

doi:10.1175/jas-d-16-0018.1

i

Dynamics and Predictability of the Intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014)

2017
By Munsell, Erin B. ; Zhang, Fuqing ; Sippel, Jason A. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
Personal Author:

Munsell, Erin B. ; Zhang, Fuqing ; Sippel, Jason A. ; Braun, Scott A. ; Weng, Yonghui
NOAA Program & Office:

EMC (Environmental Modelling Center) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

The dynamics and predictability of the intensification of Hurricane Edouard (2014) are explored through a 60-member convection-permitting ensemble initialized with an ensemble Kalman filter that assimilates dropsondes collected during NASA’s Hurricane and Severe Storm Sentinel (HS3) investigation. The 126-h forecasts are initialized when Edouard was designated as a tropical depression and include Edouard’s near–rapid intensification (RI) from a tropical storm to a strong category-2 hurricane. Although the deterministic forecast was very successful and many members correctly forecasted Edouard’s intensification, there was significant spread in the timing of intensification among the members of the ensemble.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science
Source:

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 74(2), 573-595
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-16-0018.1
ISSN:

0022-4928 ; 1520-0469
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:76b6f91cbcffef30e0390f3fdfaabaef20c072b4fb1344cfaa1f831caba7b7210d43a8492c7ee461a510e0dc962051ee944cc6ef1e2707b0260e81d9743a85a2
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63636/noaa_63636_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.19 MB ]

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