The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Future Tornado Intensity as Revealed Through Multi‐Scale Modeling

Woods, Matthew J.; Trapp, Robert J.; Mallinson, Holly M.

doi:10.1029/2023gl104796

i

The Impact of Human‐Induced Climate Change on Future Tornado Intensity as Revealed Through Multi‐Scale Modeling

Supporting Files

2023
By Woods, Matthew J. ; Trapp, Robert J. ; Mallinson, Holly M.

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Woods, Matthew J. ; Trapp, Robert J. ; Mallinson, Holly M.
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

A novel, multi‐scale climate modeling approach is used to show the potential for increases in future tornado intensity due to anthropogenic climate change. Historical warm‐ and cool‐season (WARM and COOL) tornado events are virtually placed in a globally warmed future via the “pseudo‐global warming” method. As hypothesized based on meteorological arguments, the tornadic‐storm and associated vortex of the COOL event experiences consistent and robust increases in intensity in an ensemble of imposed climate‐change experiments. The tornadic‐storm and associated vortex of the WARM event experiences increases in intensity in some of the experiments, but the response is neither consistent nor robust, and is overall weaker than in the COOL event. An examination of environmental parameters provides further support of the disproportionately stronger response in the cool‐season event. These results have implications on future tornadoes forming outside of climatologically favored seasons.
Keywords:

General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Earth And Planetary Sciences
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 50(15)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023gl104796
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:ade1a388be0e3f406fa62a7a7f31fe9eae926ac62ccfb95e6c2e4edc51c9a2fe46add7ee2663e26e7d41d62ce79ec1b7bb07991603cacc6981fddf1b7269e2ea
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63578/noaa_63578_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.48 MB ]

Machine readable version (XML)

Download

ON THIS PAGE

Details Supporting Files

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.