Remote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment

Details

• Journal Title:
  Climate Dynamics
• Personal Author:
  Xue, Yongkang ; Diallo, Ismaila ; Boone, Aaron A. ; Zhang, Yang ; Zeng, Xubin ; Lau, William K. M. ; Neelin, J. David ; Yao, Tandong ; Tang, Qi ; Sato, Tomonori ; Koo, Myung-Seo ; Vitart, Frederic ; Ardilouze, Constantin ; Saha, Subodh K. ; Materia, Stefano ; Lin, Zhaohui ; Takaya, Yuhei ; Yang, Jing ; Nakamura, Tetsu ; Qi, Xin ; Qin, Yi ; Nobre, Paulo ; Senan, Retish ; Wang, Hailan ; Zhang, Hongliang ; Zhao, Mei ; Nayak, Hara Prasad ; Pan, Yan ; Pan, Xiaoduo ; Feng, Jinming ; Shi, Chunxiang ; Xie, Shaocheng ; Brunke, Michael A. ; Bao, Qing ; Bottino, Marcus Jorge ; Fan, Tianyi ; Hong, Songyou ; Lin, Yanluan ; Peano, Daniele ; Zhan, Yanling ; Mechoso, Carlos R. ; Ren, Xuejuan ; Balsamo, Gianpaolo ; Chou, Sin Chan ; de Rosnay, Patricia ; van Oevelen, Peter J. ; Klocke, Daniel ; Ek, Michael ; Li, Xin ; Guo, Weidong ; Zhu, Yuejian ; Tang, Jianping ; Liang, Xin-Zhong ; Qian, Yun ; Zhao, Ping
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) ; NWS (National Weather Service)
• Description:
  The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that utilizes information on boreal spring land surface temperature/subsurface temperature (LST/SUBT) anomalies over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to improve prediction of subsequent summer droughts/floods over several regions over the world, East Asia and North America in particular. The work was performed in the framework of the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I (LS4P-I) experiment, which focused on whether the TP LST/SUBT provides an additional source for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. The summer 2003, when there were severe drought/flood over the southern/northern part of the Yangtze River basin, respectively, has been selected as the focus case. With the newly developed LST/SUBT initialization method, the observed surface temperature anomaly over the TP has been partially produced by the LS4P-I model ensemble mean, and 8 hotspot regions in the world were identified where June precipitation is significantly associated with anomalies of May TP land temperature. Consideration of the TP LST/SUBT effect has produced about 25–50% of observed precipitation anomalies in most hotspot regions. The multiple models have shown more consistency in the hotspot regions along the Tibetan Plateau-Rocky Mountain Circumglobal (TRC) wave train. The mechanisms for the LST/SUBT effect on the 2003 drought over the southern part of the Yangtze River Basin are discussed. For comparison, the global SST effect has also been tested and 6 regions with significant SST effects were identified in the 2003 case, explaining about 25–50% of precipitation anomalies over most of these regions. This study suggests that the TP LST/SUBT effect is a first-order source of S2S precipitation predictability, and hence it is comparable to that of the SST effect. With the completion of the LS4P-I, the LS4P-II has been launched and the LS4P-II protocol is briefly presented.
• Keywords:
  Atmospheric Science
• Source:
  Climate Dynamics (2023)
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06905-5
• ISSN:
  0930-7575 ; 1432-0894
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Springer Science and Business Media LLC
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• License:
  https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
• Rights Information:
  CC BY
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e8c5b3bf943eba7afcd67378f685fb459d4366630d06f3587fb29b2f4ddaa3b0502969c0daad8330086d912cf172c680af0356a256b4572217e5f85911f4c2dd
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63530/noaa_63530_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 5.05 MB ]