Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time

Deyle, Ethan R.; May, Robert M.; Munch, Stephan B.; Sugihara, George

doi:10.1098/rspb.2015.2258

i

Tracking and forecasting ecosystem interactions in real time

2016
By Deyle, Ethan R. ; May, Robert M. ; Munch, Stephan B. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Personal Author:

Deyle, Ethan R. ; May, Robert M. ; Munch, Stephan B. ; Sugihara, George
NOAA Program & Office:

NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center)
Description:

Evidence shows that species interactions are not constant but change as the ecosystem shifts to new states. Although controlled experiments and model investigations demonstrate how nonlinear interactions can arise in principle, empirical tools to track and predict them in nature are lacking. Here we present a practical method, using available time-series data, to measure and forecast changing interactions in real systems, and identify the underlying mechanisms. The method is illustrated with model data from a marine mesocosm experiment and limnologic field data from Sparkling Lake, WI, USA. From simple to complex, these examples demonstrate the feasibility of quantifying, predicting and understanding state-dependent, nonlinear interactions as they occur in situ and in real time—a requirement for managing resources in a nonlinear, non-equilibrium world.
Keywords:

General Agricultural And Biological Sciences General Biochemistry, Genetics And Molecular Biology General Environmental Science General Immunology And Microbiology General Medicine General Agricultural And Biological Sciences General Biochemistry, Genetics And Molecular Biology General Immunology And Microbiology General Agricultural And Biological Sciences General Biochemistry, Genetics And Molecular Biology General Immunology And Microbiology
Source:

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 283(1822), 20152258
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.2258
ISSN:

0962-8452 ; 1471-2954
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

The Royal Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA08OAR4320894
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha-512:46c832d2aeeb29bb8178f7ccc4e328457298590d15f04401f36c34157dac47e445d25d310359edf8e2372bf365e95aed36c127d27097bfe8ba40b157f3d03cc0
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/63496/noaa_63496_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 847.14 KB ]

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