| Sea ice prediction physics - :6337 | National Weather Service (NWS)
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    In this note we review the physics of sea ice as a system forced by the atmosphere and ocean as they are relevant to the problem of making forecasts of the future state of the sea ice pack. Statistical analyses [Walsh, 1981; Chapman and Walsh, 1991; Mysak et al, 1991] and a limited theoretical analysis [Grumbine, 1993] suggest that the period of predictability may be weeks to months, making sea ice one of the most predictable components of the climate system. A feature of sea ice physics is that less is known about it than related physical systems such as the atmosphere and ocean. Consequently this review should be taken in the sense of a progress report on the state of sea ice understanding. A bibliography including sea ice papers not directly quoted is included at the end to permit the reader to identify groups actively working on aspects of the problem relevant to the reader's specific interest.

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