On the use of conditional age at length data as a likelihood component in integrated population dynamics models

Details

• Journal Title:
  Fisheries Research
• Personal Author:
  Lee, Huihua ; Piner, Kevin R. ; Taylor, Ian G. ; Kitakado, Toshihide
• NOAA Program & Office:
  NMFS (National Marine Fisheries Service) ; NWFSC (Northwest Fisheries Science Center) ; SWFSC (Southwest Fisheries Science Center)
• Description:
  Integrated population dynamics models use a variety of data types, and all the data used impact modeled processes and estimated dynamics. Paired age-length data treated as conditional age-at-length (CAAL) data are increasingly being used as a data component in stock assessment models. The original intent of the use of CAAL data was to directly estimate the length-at-age process, including the associated variability in length-at-age. However, we show that introduction of CAAL data that are not representative of the age-structure of the population can cause bias and imprecision in estimates of not only growth, but also dynamics and management quantities. Estimation of an appropriate age-based observations-modeled process may improve model performance. We also show that even the use of representative CAAL data in a model with misspecified age-based systems-modeled processes (natural mortality and time-varying growth) can lead to bias and imprecision in growth, dynamics, and management quantities. In these cases, estimation of an age-based observations-modeled process magnified the bias and imprecision. Greater consideration of this type of data is needed.
• Keywords:
  Aquatic Science
• Source:
  Fisheries Research, 216, 204-211
• DOI:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2019.04.007
• ISSN:
  0165-7836
• Format:
  PDF
• Publisher:
  Elsevier BV
• Document Type:
  Journal Article
• Rights Information:
  Accepted Manuscript
• Compliance:
  Library
• Main Document Checksum:
  urn:sha-512:e5a178ec8a1103e5aaaf5060640c1ce70e4a8aabfe09e9e85e17cd35d72e2d0348129afee29ca5e70ea276e6f5d689c5e1348bb71dc6b1ba6f4e671b604ac3ad
• Download URL:
  https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/62699/noaa_62699_DS1.pdf
• File Type:
  [PDF - 424.29 KB ]