Sea-ice cover timing in the Pacific Arctic: The present and projections to mid-century by selected CMIP5 models
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Sea-ice cover timing in the Pacific Arctic: The present and projections to mid-century by selected CMIP5 models

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  • Journal Title:
    Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography
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  • Description:
    With the sea-ice cover in the Arctic fast declining, changes to the timing of sea-ice break-up and freeze-up is an urgent economic, social, and scientific concern. Based on daily sea-ice concentration data we assess three variables: the dates of sea-ice break-up and freeze-up, and the annual sea-ice duration in the Pacific Arctic. The simulation results from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are the source for this study. Compared with observations, CMIP5 models simulate all three variables well. The length of sea-ice duration is shrinking, with the strongest trend occurring for the period 1990–2014; this downward trend is projected to continue at least through mid-century by the CMIP5 models. Comparisons made at eight Chukchi Sea mooring sites and eight Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) regions show consistent results. The 30-year averaged trend for annual sea-ice duration in the southern Chukchi Sea is projected to be −0.68 (−0.74) days/year to −1.20 (−1.17) days/year for 2015–2044 under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5) emissions scenarios. This is equivalent to a reduction of 20–36 days in the annual sea-ice duration. A similar negative trend is also found at all eight DBO regions. The reduction in annual sea-ice duration will include both earlier break-up dates and later freeze-up dates. However, models project that a later freeze-up contributes more than earlier break-up to the overall shortening of annual sea-ice duration. Around the Bering Strait area, future changes are the smallest, with less than 20 days change in duration during the next 30 years. In contrast, up to a 60-day reduction of the sea-ice duration in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort Seas is projected near the middle of the 21st century, when averaged over the period of 2030–2044.
  • Source:
    Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 152, 22-34
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  • ISSN:
    0967-0645
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    Accepted Manuscript
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    The NOAA IR provides access to this content under the authority of the government's retained license to distribute publications and data resulting from federal funding. While users may legally access this content, the copyright owners retain rights that govern the reproduction, redistribution, and re-use of this work. The user is solely responsible for complying with applicable copyright law.
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    Submitted
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