Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels

Sweet, William V.; Genz, Ayesha S.; Menendez, Melisa; Marra, John J.; Obeysekera, Jayantha

doi:10.1029/2024GL108864

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels

2024
By Sweet, William V. ; Genz, Ayesha S. ; Menendez, Melisa ; ...
Source: Geophysical Research Letters, 51(14)

[PDF-2.39 MB]

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Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Sweet, William V. ; Genz, Ayesha S. ; Menendez, Melisa ; Marra, John J. ; Obeysekera, Jayantha

Sweet, William V. ; Genz, Ayesha S. ; Menendez, Melisa ; Marra, John J. ; Obeysekera, Jayantha Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information)

NESDIS (National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service) ; NOS (National Ocean Service) ; NCEI (National Centers for Environmental Information) Less -
Description:

Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea levels rise. Using a time‐dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift on an annual basis from climate forcing and long‐period tidal cycles. In some regions, combined variability (>15 cm) can be as large or larger than the amount of sea level rise (SLR) experienced over the past 30 years and projected over the next 30 years. Considering SLR and variability by 2050 at a location like La Jolla, California suggests a moderate‐level (damaging) flood today with a 50‐year return level (2% annual chance) would occur about 3–4 times a year during an El Nino nearing the peak of the nodal tide cycle. If interannual variability is overlooked, SLR related impacts could be more severe than anticipated based solely upon decadal‐scale projections.
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 51(14)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL108864
ISSN:

0094-8276;1944-8007;
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PDF
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American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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Journal Article
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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY
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urn:sha-512:03046b827fc230e0a2e88593f3f639a53b82b97f93aee40729a437110cd077aa047a386e6a8cbea0125cc573e66496d2657c5c0dce7d698aaefdd0f35e2cbc5d
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Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels

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