A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

Balaguru, Karthik; Chang, Chuan‐Chieh; Leung, L. Ruby; Foltz, Gregory R.; Hagos, Samson M.; Wehner, Michael F.; Kossin, James P.; Ting, Mingfang; Xu, Wenwei

doi:10.1029/2023EF004230

i

A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification

2024
By Balaguru, Karthik ; Chang, Chuan‐Chieh ; Leung, L. Ruby ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Earth's Future
Personal Author:

Balaguru, Karthik ; Chang, Chuan‐Chieh ; Leung, L. Ruby ; Foltz, Gregory R. ; Hagos, Samson M. ; Wehner, Michael F. ; Kossin, James P. ; Ting, Mingfang ; Xu, Wenwei
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; AOML (Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory)
Description:

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, few studies explored nearshore storm intensification and its response to climate change at the global scale. Here, we address this using a suite of observations and numerical model simulations. Over the historical period 1979–2020, observations reveal a global mean TC intensification rate increase of about 3 kt per 24‐hr in regions close to the coast. Analysis of the observed large‐scale environment shows that stronger decreases in vertical wind shear and larger increases in relative humidity relative to the open oceans are responsible. Further, high‐resolution climate model simulations suggest that nearshore TC intensification will continue to rise under global warming. Idealized numerical experiments with an intermediate complexity model reveal that decreasing shear near coastlines, driven by amplified warming in the upper troposphere and changes in heating patterns, is the major pathway for these projected increases in nearshore TC intensification.
Source:

Earth's Future, 12(5)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004230
ISSN:

2328-4277 ; 2328-4277
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Submitted
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:c0e2155a13952b71d29d006c8a54a8c51538c6657adfa6883e8ffa516068d16d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/61151/noaa_61151_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.66 MB ]

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