Communicating Probability Information in Weather Forecasts: Findings and Recommendations from a Living Systematic Review of the Research Literature
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Dates

to

Document Data
Library
People
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i

Communicating Probability Information in Weather Forecasts: Findings and Recommendations from a Living Systematic Review of the Research Literature

Filetype[PDF-1.80 MB]


Details You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Weather, Climate, and Society
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    Probabilistic forecast information is rapidly spreading in the weather enterprise. Many scientists agree that this is a positive development, but incorporating probability information into risk communication can be challenging because communicators have little guidance about the most effective way to present it. This project endeavors to create such guidance by initiating a “living systematic review” of research studies that empirically examine the impact of risk messages that use probability information on protective action decision-making, intentions, and behaviors. In this article, we explain how we began the review, map the current state of the literature, synthesize core findings, provide actionable recommendations to assist forecasters in risk communication, and introduce an online platform that scholars and forecasters can use to interact with the data from the review. We conclude with two key points from the review that necessitate emphasis: the research literature strongly suggests that 1) average people can make sense of and use probability information if consideration is given to information presentation and 2) assuming appropriate presentation, probability information generally improves decision quality. Significance Statement Probability information is increasingly common in weather forecasts, but forecasters have relatively little guidance on the most effective way to communicate this information to members of the public. This project synthesizes the research literature to provide actionable recommendations to assist forecasters who are working to include probability information in risk communication messages.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Weather, Climate, and Society, 14(2), 481-498
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    1948-8327;1948-8335;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA20OAR4590345
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at

Version 3.27.2