Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity
Advanced Search
Select up to three search categories and corresponding keywords using the fields to the right. Refer to the Help section for more detailed instructions.

Search our Collections & Repository

For very narrow results

When looking for a specific result

Best used for discovery & interchangable words

Recommended to be used in conjunction with other fields

Dates

to

Document Data
Library
People
Clear All
Clear All

For additional assistance using the Custom Query please check out our Help Page

The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
i

Identifying Subseasonal Variability Relevant to Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Filetype[PDF-4.45 MB]


Details You May Also Like

Details:

  • Journal Title:
    Weather and Forecasting
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    The primary atmospheric oscillations and variables associated with subseasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identified, based on 37 years of reanalysis data. TC activity, represented by accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), is computed for combined phases of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The MJO influence on TC activity becomes greater when the ENSO state is cooler. There is also a shift in the favorable MJO phase for TC activity with ENSO state. For strong La Niñas, MJO phases 4 and 5 (enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent) are most likely to have above-average ACE. To investigate other potential factors that influence subseasonal TC activity, two novel methods are developed: ACE by year (ABY) and seasonal and climatology removed (SNCR). Both methods isolate subseasonal signals of environmental conditions in association with a variable of interest. Vorticity, sea surface temperature, relative humidity, and genesis potential all show little signal in association with subseasonal Atlantic TC activity. The most important identifier of enhanced TC activity is negative vertical wind shear anomalies in the main development region of the Atlantic basin, and positive shear anomalies in the subtropical Atlantic. The shear pattern associated with a favorable MJO for TCs is similar to but distinct from the shear pattern associated with enhanced subseasonal TC activity. These findings demonstrate a nonlinear MJO–ENSO interaction and a pattern of wind shear anomalies that is linked to subseasonal TC activity.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Weather and Forecasting, 35(5), 2001-2024
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0882-8156;1520-0434;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

Supporting Files

  • No Additional Files
More +

You May Also Like

Checkout today's featured content at repository.library.noaa.gov

Version 3.27.1