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Simulations of Severe Convective Systems Using 1- versus 3-km Grid Spacing
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2023
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Source: Weather and Forecasting, 38(3), 401-423
[PDF-8.80 MB]
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Journal Title:Weather and Forecasting
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Description:Herein, 14 severe quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) covering a wide range of geographical locations and environmental conditions are simulated for both 1- and 3-km horizontal grid resolutions, to further clarify their comparative capabilities in representing convective system features associated with severe weather production. Emphasis is placed on validating the simulated reflectivity structures, cold pool strength, mesoscale vortex characteristics, and surface wind strength. As to the overall reflectivity characteristics, the basic leading-line trailing stratiform structure was often better defined at 1 versus 3 km, but both resolutions were capable of producing bow echo and line echo wave pattern type features. Cold pool characteristics for both the 1- and 3-km simulations were also well replicated for the differing environments, with the 1-km cold pools slightly colder and often a bit larger. Both resolutions captured the larger mesoscale vortices, such as line-end or bookend vortices, but smaller, leading-line mesoscale updraft vortices, that often promote QLCS tornadogenesis, were largely absent in the 3-km simulations. Finally, while maximum surface winds were only marginally well predicted for both resolutions, the simulations were able to reasonably differentiate the relative contributions of the cold pool versus mesoscale vortices. The present results suggest that while many QLCS characteristics can be reasonably represented at a grid scale of 3 km, some of the more detailed structures, such as overall reflectivity characteristics and the smaller leading-line mesoscale vortices would likely benefit from the finer 1-km grid spacing. Significance Statement High-resolution model forecasts using 3-km grid spacing have proven to offer significant forecast guidance enhancements for severe convective weather. However, it is unclear whether additional enhancements can be obtained by decreasing grid spacings further to 1 km. Herein, we compare forecasts of severe quasi-linear convective systems (QLCS) simulated using 1- versus 3-km grids to document the potential value added of such increases in grid resolutions. It is shown that some significant improvements can be obtained in the representation of many QLCS features, especially as regards reflectivity structure and in the development of small, leading-line mesoscale vortices that can contribute to both severe surface wind and tornado production.
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Source:Weather and Forecasting, 38(3), 401-423
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ISSN:0882-8156;1520-0434;
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