U.S. flag An official website of the United States government.
Official websites use .gov

A .gov website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.

Secure .gov websites use HTTPS

A lock ( ) or https:// means you've safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites.

i

Exploring the Value of a High-Precision Targeted Observation Strategy for Mobile Radiosonde Deployment



Details

  • Journal Title:
    Monthly Weather Review
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    NWS (National Weather Service)
  • Description:
    Ensemble sensitivity analysis (ESA) is a numerical method by which the potential value of a single additional observation can be estimated using an ensemble numerical weather forecast. By performing ESA observation targeting on runs of the Texas Tech University WRF Ensemble from the spring of 2016, a dataset of predicted variance reductions (hereinafter referred to as target values) was obtained over approximately 6 weeks of convective forecasts for the central United States. It was then ascertained from these cases that the geographic variation in target values is large for any one case, with local maxima often several standard deviations higher than the mean and surrounded by sharp gradients. Radiosondes launched from the surface, then, would need to take this variation into account to properly sample a specific target by launching upstream of where the target is located rather than directly underneath. In many cases, the difference between the maximum target value in the vertical and the actual target value observed along the balloon path was multiple standard deviations. This may help to explain the lower-than-expected forecast improvements observed in previous ESA targeting experiments, especially the Mesoscale Predictability Experiment (MPEX). If target values are a good predictor of observation value, then it is possible that taking the balloon path into account in targeting systems for radiosonde deployment may substantially improve on the value added to the forecast by individual observations.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Monthly Weather Review, 151(9), 2233-2244
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0027-0644 ; 1520-0493
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Meteorological Society
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA20NWS4680045
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
    urn:sha256:f5277095c79031c669121ab9158072576a23ed7019e3a44f0bb880f6a0def1e5
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:
    Filetype[PDF - 1.94 MB ]
PREVIOUS
ON THIS PAGE
Details
The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.
BACK TO TOP