Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States

Vaughan, Matthew T.; Tang, Brian H.; Bosart, Lance F.

doi:10.1175/waf-d-17-0044.1

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The NOAA IR serves as an archival repository of NOAA-published products including scientific findings, journal articles, guidelines, recommendations, or other information authored or co-authored by NOAA or funded partners. As a repository, the NOAA IR retains documents in their original published format to ensure public access to scientific information.

i

Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States

2017
By Vaughan, Matthew T. ; Tang, Brian H. ; Bosart, Lance F.
Source: Weather and Forecasting, 32(5), 1903-1919

[PDF-4.99 MB]

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Journal Title:

Weather and Forecasting
Personal Author:

Vaughan, Matthew T. ; Tang, Brian H. ; Bosart, Lance F.

Vaughan, Matthew T. ; Tang, Brian H. ; Bosart, Lance F. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:

This study identifies high-impact severe weather events with poor predictive skill over the northeast United States using Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks. The objectives are to build a climatology of high-impact, low predictive skill events between 1980 and 2013 and investigate the differences in the synoptic-scale environment and severe weather parameters between severe weather events with low predictive skill and high predictive skill. Event-centered composite analyses, performed using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and the North American Regional Reanalysis, suggest low predictive skill events occur significantly more often in low-shear environments. Additionally, a plurality of low probability of detection (POD), high-impact events occurred in low-shear, high-CAPE environments. Statistical analysis of low-shear, high-CAPE environments suggests high downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) and relatively dry lower levels of the atmosphere are associated with widespread severe weather events. DCAPE and dry boundary layer air may contribute to severe wind gusts through strong negative buoyancy and enhanced evaporative cooling of descending saturated parcels.
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science
Source:

Weather and Forecasting, 32(5), 1903-1919
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-17-0044.1
ISSN:

0882-8156;1520-0434;
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Meteorological Society
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA13NWS4680004 ; Grant no. NA16NWS4680005

Grant no. NA13NWS4680004 ; Grant no. NA16NWS4680005 Less -
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Other
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Main Document Checksum:

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urn:sha256:bd6c6c48e5f03965d2a14a300e3611f70a382a07d453af039487d9f611039efa
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/60347/noaa_60347_DS1.pdf
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Climatology and Analysis of High-Impact, Low Predictive Skill Severe Weather Events in the Northeast United States

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