Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

Malloy, Kelsey; Kirtman, Ben P.

doi:10.1029/2022jd037795

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i

Subseasonal Great Plains Rainfall via Remote Extratropical Teleconnections: Regional Application of Theory‐Guided Causal Networks

2023
By Malloy, Kelsey ; Kirtman, Ben P.
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(5)

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Details:

Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Malloy, Kelsey ; Kirtman, Ben P.

Malloy, Kelsey ; Kirtman, Ben P. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Long‐range U.S. summer rainfall prediction skill is low. Monsoon variability, especially over the West North Pacific Monsoon (WNPM) and/or East Asian Monsoon (EAM) region, can influence U.S. Great Plains hydroclimate variability via a forced Rossby wave response. Here, we explored subseasonal monsoon variability as a source of predictability for Great Plains rainfall. The boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is related to Great Plains convection and Great Plains low‐level jet (LLJ) anomalies as well as a cross‐Pacific wave train. Using a causal effect network, we found that the time between BSISO‐related geopotential height anomalies and Great Plains rainfall anomalies is about 2 weeks; therefore, BSISO convection may be a valuable forecast of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of Great Plains convection anomalies. More specifically, causal link patterns/maps revealed that the above‐normal weekly EAM rainfall, rather than WNPM rainfall or general geopotential height activity over the East Asia, was causally linked to Great Plains LLJ strengthening and active Great Plains convection the following week.
Keywords:

[+]

Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(5)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2022jd037795
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. N16OAR4310149 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4320064 ; Grant no. NA16OAR4310141 ; Grant no. NA20OAR430472

Grant no. N16OAR4310149 ; Grant no. NA15OAR4320064 ; Grant no. NA16OAR4310141 ; Grant no. NA20OAR430472 Less -
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Library
Main Document Checksum:

[+]

urn:sha256:0e5a54718ace041aa39e7a793dc7f2cfc923448447f0b41c011d29dfb14866b8
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/60158/noaa_60158_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF-3.05 MB]