Details:

Journal Title:
Water Resources Research
Personal Author:
Sharma, Sanjib ; Siddique, Ridwan ; Reed, Seann ; Ahnert, Peter ; Mejia, Alfonso
Sharma, Sanjib ; Siddique, Ridwan ; Reed, Seann ; Ahnert, Peter ; Mejia, Alfonso Less -
NOAA Program & Office:
NWS (National Weather Service)
Description:
We investigate the ability of hydrological multimodel ensemble predictions to enhance the skill of streamflow forecasts at short‐ to medium‐range timescales. To generate the multimodel ensembles, we implement a new statistical postprocessor, namely, quantile regression‐Bayesian model averaging (QR‐BMA). Quantile regression‐Bayesian model averaging uses quantile regression to bias correct the ensemble streamflow forecasts from the individual models and Bayesian model averaging to optimally combine their probability density functions. Additionally, we use an information‐theoretic measure, namely, conditional mutual information, to quantify the skill enhancements from the multimodel forecasts. We generate ensemble streamflow forecasts at lead times from 1 to 7 days using three hydrological models: (i) Antecedent Precipitation Index‐Continuous, (ii) Hydrology Laboratory‐Research Distributed Hydrologic Model, and (iii) Weather Research and Forecasting Hydrological modeling system. As forcing to the hydrological models, we use weather ensemble forecasts from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11‐member Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast version 2. The forecasting experiments are performed for four nested basins of the North Branch Susquehanna River, USA. We find that after bias correcting the streamflow forecasts from each model, their skill performance becomes comparable. We find that the multimodel ensemble forecasts have higher skill than the best single‐model forecasts. Furthermore, the skill enhancements obtained by the multimodel ensemble forecasts are found to be dominated by model diversity, rather than by increased ensemble size alone. This result, obtained using conditional mutual information, indicates that each hydrological model contributes additional information to enhance forecast skill. Overall, our results highlight benefits of hydrological multimodel forecasting for improving streamflow predictions.
Keywords:
[+]
Water Science and Technology
Source:
Water Resources Research, 55(2), 1510-1530
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018wr023197
ISSN:
0043-1397;1944-7973;
Format:
PDF
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:
Journal Article
Funding:
Grant no. NA14NWS4680012
Rights Information:
Other
Compliance:
Library
Main Document Checksum:
[+]
urn:sha256:0fed02d902fd976bed9392fdf8fe8568251cbe47e7b2252f03e84f8edb0a9506
Download URL:
https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59800/noaa_59800_DS1.pdf
File Type:

Supporting Files

• Machine readable version (XML)

  xml

More +