Reducing the uncertainty in subtropical cloud feedback
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Reducing the uncertainty in subtropical cloud feedback

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  • Journal Title:
    Geophysical Research Letters
  • Personal Author:
  • NOAA Program & Office:
    OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
  • Description:
    Large uncertainty remains on how subtropical clouds will respond to anthropogenic climate change and therefore whether they will act as a positive feedback that amplifies global warming or negative feedback that dampens global warming by altering Earth's energy budget. Here we reduce this uncertainty using an observationally constrained formulation of the response of subtropical clouds to greenhouse forcing. The observed interannual sensitivity of cloud solar reflection to varying meteorological conditions suggests that increasing sea surface temperature and atmospheric stability in the future climate will have largely canceling effects on subtropical cloudiness, overall leading to a weak positive shortwave cloud feedback (0.4 ± 0.9 W m−2 K−1). The uncertainty of this observationally based approximation of the cloud feedback is narrower than the intermodel spread of the feedback produced by climate models. Subtropical cloud changes will therefore complement positive cloud feedbacks identified by previous work, suggesting that future global cloud changes will amplify global warming.
  • Keywords:
  • Source:
    Geophysical Research Letters, 43(5), 2144-2148
  • DOI:
  • ISSN:
    0094-8276;1944-8007;
  • Format:
    PDF
  • Publisher:
    American Geophysical Union (AGU)
  • Document Type:
    Journal Article
  • Funding:
    Grant no. NA14OAR4310278
  • Rights Information:
    Other
  • Compliance:
    Library
  • Main Document Checksum:
  • Download URL:
  • File Type:

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