Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Summer Weather Persistence Linked to Projected Arctic Warming

Kornhuber, Kai; Tamarin‐Brodsky, Talia

doi:10.1029/2020gl091603

i

Future Changes in Northern Hemisphere Summer Weather Persistence Linked to Projected Arctic Warming

Supporting Files

2021
By Kornhuber, Kai ; Tamarin‐Brodsky, Talia

Details

Journal Title:

Geophysical Research Letters
Personal Author:

Kornhuber, Kai ; Tamarin‐Brodsky, Talia
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Understanding the response of the large‐scale atmospheric circulation to climatic change remains a key challenge. Specifically, changes in the equator‐to‐pole temperature difference have been suggested to affect the midlatitudes, potentially leading to more persistent extreme weather, but a scientific consensus has not been established so far. Here we quantify summer weather persistence by applying a tracking algorithm to lower tropospheric vorticity and temperature fields to analyze changes in their propagation speeds. We find significant links between slower propagating weather systems and a weaker equator‐to‐pole temperature difference in observations and models. By end of the century, the propagation of temperature anomalies over midlatitude land is projected to decrease by −3%, regionally strongest in southern North America (−45%) under a high emission scenario (CMIP5 RCP8.5). Even higher decreases are found (−10%, −58%) in models which project a decreasing equator‐to‐pole temperature difference. Our findings provide evidence that hot summer weather might become longer‐lasting, bearing the risk of more persistent heat extremes.
Keywords:

General Earth And Planetary Sciences Geophysics General Earth And Planetary Sciences General Earth And Planetary Sciences
Source:

Geophysical Research Letters, 48(4)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl091603
ISSN:

0094-8276 ; 1944-8007
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA11OAR4310076 ; Grant no. NA19OAR4310375
Rights Information:

Other
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:078c8b998fc0e8e4b058f345760932ebd073b8abdc8267e72c6a0df3ea7aa41d
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59716/noaa_59716_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 6.35 MB ]

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