Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Goddard, P. B.; Kravitz, B.; MacMartin, D. G.; Visioni, D.; Bednarz, E. M.; Lee, W. R.

doi:10.1029/2023jd039434

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Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

2023
By Goddard, P. B. ; Kravitz, B. ; MacMartin, D. G. ; ...
Source: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(22)

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Journal Title:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Personal Author:

Goddard, P. B. ; Kravitz, B. ; MacMartin, D. G. ; Visioni, D. ; Bednarz, E. M. ; ... More +

Goddard, P. B. ; Kravitz, B. ; MacMartin, D. G. ; Visioni, D. ; Bednarz, E. M. ; Lee, W. R. Less -
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory)

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research) ; CIRES (Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences) ; CSL (Chemical Sciences Laboratory) Less -
Description:

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. This study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi‐latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre‐industrial. All these multi‐latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid‐to‐late 21st century SSP2‐4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre‐industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (∼15°S ‐ 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.
Keywords:

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Atmospheric Science Earth And Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Geophysics Space And Planetary Science
Source:

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 128(22)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd039434
ISSN:

2169-897X;2169-8996;
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PDF
Publisher:

American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA22OAR4310479 ; Grant no. NA22OAR4320151

Grant no. NA22OAR4310479 ; Grant no. NA22OAR4320151 Less -
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urn:sha256:0f84eef73ba97d8552eb84890e5fcad684bee0cf9364f233ac42beb773f3af0c
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https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59671/noaa_59671_DS1.pdf
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