Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias

Ayyad, Mahmoud; Orton, Philip M.; El Safty, Hoda; Chen, Ziyu; Hajj, Muhammad R.

doi:10.1016/j.wace.2022.100504

i

Ensemble forecast for storm tide and resurgence from Tropical Cyclone Isaias

2022
By Ayyad, Mahmoud ; Orton, Philip M. ; El Safty, Hoda ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

Weather and Climate Extremes
Personal Author:

Ayyad, Mahmoud ; Orton, Philip M. ; El Safty, Hoda ; Chen, Ziyu ; Hajj, Muhammad R.
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting of storm surge is increasingly being used to provide metrics for emergency management decisions such as the near-worst case scenario. The Stevens Flood Advisory System is an ensemble prediction system used to forecast total water levels over a broad coastal region and street-scale flood levels for several New York Harbor (NYH) critical infrastructure sites. As a part of our continuous assessment of this system’s performance, we evaluate its prediction of storm tide and resurgence during Tropical Cyclone Isaias (2020), which tracked northward along the Pennsylvania/New Jersey border and caused the largest storm surge in NYH since Hurricane Sandy. Isaias specific track and speed generated an unusual flood event consisting of a storm surge, a blowout, then a significant resurgence that caused minor flooding. The analysis shows that the super-ensemble spread provided an equal or better estimate of uncertainties than sub-ensembles based only on any single meteorological forcing system. Because of ensemble averaging, the central forecast under-predicted peak water levels and the resurgence peak though these were predicted by some of the ensemble members. The impacts of errors in forecast storm arrival time and resolution-related biases in coarse global atmospheric models on the predictions are noted. A limited comparison for this single storm with the National Hurricane Center’s forecast show SFAS providing better accuracy and spread. Advantages and challenges of SFAS and other similar mid-latitude flood forecast systems are identified along with recommendations for analysis and improvement.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Geography, Planning And Development Management, Monitoring, Policy And Law Geography, Planning And Development Management, Monitoring, Policy And Law Geography, Planning And Development Management, Monitoring, Policy And Law
Source:

Weather and Climate Extremes, 38, 100504
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100504
ISSN:

2212-0947
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Elsevier BV
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA21OAR4310313
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY-NC-ND
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:3edec47b3612113bebeb73404729b8a84875c2dfb997e70aa72b6512c8d4b313
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59542/noaa_59542_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 3.70 MB ]

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