More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

Shin, Na-Yeon; Kug, Jong-Seong; Stuecker, Malte F.; Jin, Fei-Fei; Timmermann, Axel; Kim, Geon-Il

doi:10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9

i

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate

2022
By Shin, Na-Yeon ; Kug, Jong-Seong ; Stuecker, Malte F. ; ...

Details

Journal Title:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
Personal Author:

Shin, Na-Yeon ; Kug, Jong-Seong ; Stuecker, Malte F. ; Jin, Fei-Fei ; Timmermann, Axel ; Kim, Geon-Il
NOAA Program & Office:

OAR (Oceanic and Atmospheric Research)
Description:

El Niño events exhibit rich diversity in their spatial patterns, which can lead to distinct global impacts. Therefore, how El Niño pattern diversity will change in a warmer climate is one of the most critical issues for future climate projections. Based on the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project simulations, we report an inter-model consensus on future El Niño diversity changes. Central Pacific (CP) El Niño events are projected to occur more frequently compared to eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Concurrently, EP El Niño events are projected to increase in amplitude, leading to higher chances of extreme EP El Niño occurrences. We suggest that enhanced upper-ocean stability due to greenhouse warming can lead to a stronger surface-layer response for increasing positive feedbacks, more favorable excitation of CP El Niño. Whereas, enhanced nonlinear atmospheric responses to EP sea surface temperatures can lead to a higher probability of extreme EP El Niño.
Keywords:

Atmospheric Science Environmental Chemistry Global And Planetary Change Global And Planetary Change Global And Planetary Change
Source:

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1)
DOI:

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9
ISSN:

2397-3722
Format:

PDF
Publisher:

Springer Science and Business Media LLC
Document Type:

Journal Article
Funding:

Grant no. NA20OAR4310445
License:

https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
Rights Information:

CC BY
Compliance:

Library
Main Document Checksum:

urn:sha256:e22ff40f15952d3ac1a5c4439632f8d6dec82fe189a43d5860e35abfed8c7685
Download URL:

https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/59169/noaa_59169_DS1.pdf
File Type:

[PDF - 1.70 MB ]

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